The Predicted Grade

Predicted Grades

So, nailing down the Predicted grade can seem rather daunting. Evaluating the paper is more about adherence to the “rules and regulations” from I.B. and the ability to meet the criteria than it does on how a paper “feels”. As it should, of course.

Now with the change to a “Best Fit Approach” and markbands, the E.E. assessment procedure is a little more natural than it used to be.


We’ve taught our kids well. They know the perils of plagiarism and what can happen to them if they cross the line and find themselves on the wrong side of the law. But sometimes, kids make really bad decisions.

You’ll be equipped with the Turnitin similarity report, which will hopefully show you what was taken from other sources. If you are at all uncertain about the authenticity of a student’s work, you need to address it ASAP. Hopefully that’s already been handled before the Final Submission Deadline, as the I.B. doesn’t take too kindly to plagiarism.

Based on the readings I’ve done; if the I.B. Evaluator believes there is any chance of plagiarism, the essay is kicked up the foodchain. This includes inconsistent or inadequate citation or referencing.

If an essay is reasonably suspected of being plagiarized, we may be faced with the decision to not submit the E.E. for assessment. That would be most awkward, but less awkward than submitting the paper knowingly and being questioned by the I.B.

Basically; if you think there’s a chance that the paper is not the authentic work of your student; please contact me immediately so we can determine next steps.


Changing the Way We Think About a “Pass”

Basically, when you’re predicting the grade it is still important that you remove yourself from the role as mentor. You know this essay well. You’ve seen it through through conception to its maturation, and you are firmly rooting for your student.

The person grading that Extended Essay though, does not share this philosophy. They are a drive-by reader. So, it’s important to look at the The Extended Essay Assessment Criteria and only that to arrive at a P.G.

Remember that to pass the E.E. , 50% of the total marks available isn’t the target. A pass is a D, which works out to about 22% of all available marks. A 50% on the E.E., would work out to a “C”, so it’s important than when evaluating you’re “Speaking IB.”

Extended Essay Grade Boundaries (Old Curriculum)

Mark Range0-78-1516-2223-2829-36

Does that Mark Reflect Upon Me as a Mentor?

No. It really doesn’t.


It doesn’t.

The Extended Essay is the student’s work; not yours.

Also, I.B. worldwide grades on the Extended Essay show that “A”s are very rare. Not exactly a Unicorn; but not far off.

Most of the E.E. grades fall into the B’s and C’s with D’s also representing a large amount. I’ll work on getting you updated global data to support that.

If you want an idea of how we performed last year…

Sir Wilfrid Laurier CI Performance on Extended Essay (May 2016)

Percentage of Total Essays1.47%20.59%42.65%29.41%5.88%

And these are the worldwide results.

I.B. Worldwide Performance on Extended Essay (May 2016)

 EDCBAGrand Total
Amount of Essays in each Grade Boundary1368167182882017499891474003
As percentage of the total1.84%22.59%38.94%23.64%12.04%

Variances… When my Predicted A comes back as a D

Variances will happen. It’s still valuable to look at the variance between our Predicted Grades and the I.B. grades too. To be clear, that variance is not an indicator of your effectiveness as a mentor.

If you’d like to take a look at your past Predicted Grades cross-referenced with the I.B. Grades, I’d be happy to discuss in person.

In the chart that follows, variance for the 2014-2015 year indicates how many Grade Boundaries of variance there are; not how many marks.

2014-20152014-20152014-20152014-2015 2015-20162015-20162015-20162015-2016 2016-20172016-20172016-20172016-2017
SubjectPredicted GradeIB Scaled MarkVariance SubjectPredicted GradeIB Scaled MarkVarianceSubjectPredicted GradeIB MarkVariance
BIODC (17)1ENG A (29)
B (24)-5MAT 14217
BIOCC (22)0ENG A (28)B (26)-2ECON 2018-2
CHEMBC (21)-1ECON A (29)C (19)-10
ECON 3116-15
CHEMCB (25)1ENG A (29)C (20)-9BIO 2719-8
ECONAC (16)-2ENG A (30)B (23)-7ENG 3031+1
ECONCD (11)-1ENG A (30)B (23)-7ENG 25272
ECONCD (14)-1ECON A (30)C (19)-11PHY 2013-7
ECONCD (8)-1ECON A (30)C (22)-8PSY 1810-8
ECONDE (5)-1MUSICA (30)C (21)-9PHY 2811-17
ECONBD (10)-2PSY A (30)C (19)-11ENG 2021+2
ECONBC (16)-1PSY A (30)C (16)-14ENG 20244
ECONBD (8)-2ECON A (31)C (18)-13PSY 21309
ECONAD (14)-3ENG A (31)C (21)-10PSY 2922-7
ECONBD (10)-2PSY A (31)D (14)-17PHY 256-19
ECONBD (11)-2ENG A (32)B (24)-8ENG 3330-3
ECONBC (16)-1ECON A (32)D (10)-22ENG23230
ECONBC (21)-1PHY A (32)D (15)-17ECON 2316-7
ECONCD (10)-1ENG A (33)C (17)-16PSY 3119-12
ECONCC (17)0ENG A (34)C (17)-17MAT 2220-2
ECONBD (11)-2ENG B (24)C (21)-3ECON 21210
ECONDD (15)0ENG B (22)C (17)-5BIO 2421-3
ENGBC (21)-1PHY B (23)C (18)-5MAT 2423-1
ENGAC (18)-2ECON B (23)D (14)-7ECON 2117-4
ENGBC (18)-1ECON B (23)D (12)-11PHY 2018-2
ENGBC (21)-1MAT B (23)D (11)-12PSY 2422-2
ENGBC (18)-1ENG B (24)C (17)-7ECON 20244
ENGBB (28)0HIST B (24)C (21)-3ENG 15150
ENGAB (25)-1ECON B (24)D (15)-9ECON 2615-11
ENGCD (13)-1PSY B (26)D (14)-12FRE 20222
ENGAB (24)-1ENG B (27)C (22)-5ENG 26293
ENGAA (33)0ECON B (27)D (8)-19ENG 2726-1
ENGBC (20)-1BIO B (28)B (26)-2ENG 2425+1
ENGBC (22)-1PSY B (28)C (16)-12ENG 22231
ENGBC (16)-1PSY B (28)D (12)-16PSY 2520-5
ENGBC (21)-1FREC (16)C (18)+2FRE 3027-3
ENGBC (22)-1CHEMC (16)D (10)-6PSY 15238
ENGCD (13)-1ECON C (16)D (14)-2ENG 2015-5
FREBB (23)0ECON C (16)D (12)-4CHE 2218-4
FRECC (19)0MAT C (17)C (16)-1PSY 3016-14
MATCD (13)-1ENG C (18)C (17)-1ENG 3024-6
MATBD (12)-2PSY C (18)C (17)-1PSY 15172
MUSICBB (26)0ENG C (20)C (22)+2ENG 2523-2
PHYBC (17)-1ECON C (20)D (15)-5CHE 2511-14
PSYBD (12)-2PSY C (20)D (12)-8PSY 2315-8
PSYCA (29)2PSY C (20)D (10)-10ENG 3126-5
PSYCB (27)1PSY C (20)D (13)-7HIS 25283
PSYCC (22)0ECON C (21)C (19)-2ENG 22275
PSYBC (17)-1ECON C (21)D (12)-9FRE 2210-12
PSYAB (24)-1ECON C (21)D (10)-11HIS 2719-8
PSYCC (19)0FRE C (22)C (18)-4PSY 2414-10
PSYAB (25)-1PSY C (22)D (10)-12MAT 24262
PSYAA (30)0ECON D (14)D (9)-5ENG 23252
PSYBD (11)-2PSY D (14)C (16)+2ECON 2715-12
ECON D (15)D (13)-2ECON 19267
BIO D (16)D (9)-7ECON 2720-7
FRE 2614-12
ENG 2619-7
MAT 2114-7
ENG 16226
PHY 2110-11
MAT 2117-4
MAT 2826-2
ENG 2523-2
ECON 2316-7
HIS 2722-5
CHE 2417-7
CHE 2619-7

If you’re ever unsure of what to do with a Predicted Grade on the E.E., please come see me in the Library. We can go over it together and my goal is to ensure the mentor is as confident as can be expected about their Predicted Grade.